In my last blog, I wrote about how the number of first-time buyers is actually greater than it seems.

This time round, I’m going to talk about property transaction levels and what this actually means for us.

I use Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and Land registry data - neither source is perfect. Land Registry only shows after approval and HMRC only show properties over £40,000. Even including this, the graph profiles are pretty consistent with each other.

Both sets are non-seasonally adjusted, so the fall in December of each year is probably down to, at least partly, the Christmas break.

What’s clear is how low the numbers have fallen since the peak in 2007. What this actually means, apart from the obvious (that fewer properties are being sold), is that there is a likelihood that there are also fewer forced sales – people who have to sell their property because they are unable to pay their mortgage. This in turn leads to more stable prices, leaving fewer people to think they can get a bargain, in turn leading to fewer transactions.

Housebuilders have obviously cottoned on to this and have reduced the amount of properties they try to bring to market each year, focusing more on costs and margins rather than volumes to sustain their businesses.

With interest rates set to remain low for the foreseeable and relatively small changes in the labour market, this is probably going to be a familiar pattern throughout 2012. Maybe it’s a good opportunity to take advantage of the impending Green Deal to make those all important improvements to increase value?

The twitter feed of Jablite's resident housing and economics expert, Damien Pooley, can be found at www.twitter.com/damienpooley